By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Align Technology is a global medical device company specialising in innovative solutions for orthodontics and restorative dentistry. Best known for its Invisalign clear aligner system, the company designs, manufactures, and markets its Invisalign product, which is a discreet, comfortable alternative to traditional braces. Align also provides advanced digital tools through its iTero intraoral scanners and exocad CAD/CAM software, empowering dental professionals to deliver precise, customised treatments.
To date, ~17 million people worldwide have been treated with the Invisalign System. The company operates in over 100 countries and is rapidly growing its international reach.
Technically, a price in a developing falling wedge pattern supports a promising investment opportunity (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart as well as the insert on the main chart). This pattern signals a reversal to an uptrend or a continuation of an existing bullish trend. A falling wedge forms when a stock's price consolidates between two downward-sloping trendlines, where the upper trendline (resistance) declines more steeply than the lower trendline (support). This represents a period of consolidation where selling pressure begins to diminish, which is seen with a slower pace of lower lows, indicating that bears are losing momentum, and bulls are taking control.
A consistent trend of outperformance in November reinforces a bullish outlook (see the insert). November, on average, returns +7.4%, a function of year-end optimism, seasonal market trends, and increased investor activity ahead of the holiday season. This momentum often carries into December (+2.7% return), supported by holiday spending.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | PG |
| Industry | Health Care Equipment & Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 16.3 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 0.60% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -20.22% |
| Current Price (USD) | 218.60 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 335.40 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 196.09 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has fallen over the past year, but technical indicators support a potential near-term recovery. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 8.61 | 9.33 | 10.26 | 11.78 |
| Growth (%) | 8.41 | 9.96 | 14.77 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.00 | - | - | - |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | |
| Forward PE (times) | 21.50 | 18.82 | 18.56 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | - | - | - | |
| Earnings growth is expected to be decent in the short-to-medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | CHD US - Take profit (Close the position) |
DELL US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CDE US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 104.14 | 123.78 | 6.23 |
| Current | 112.25 | 138.92 | 6.63 |
| Movement | 7.8% | +12.2% | +6.4% |
| The share price has performed well, and we suggest closing the trade to reduce portfolio exposure. |
A price in wave 5 of the Elliott wave price remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains $148.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $127.00. Exit the trade by 10 January 2025. |
A developing falling wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Recent downside price momentum has halted.
Our profit target remains $8.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $5.80. Exit the trade by 10 January 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | KMX US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
XLK US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
PG US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 76.44 | 230.09 | 170.76 |
| Current | 80.63 | 233.48 | 172.75 |
| Movement | +5.5% | +1.5% | +1.2% |
|
A developing ascending triangle pattern remains of interest. Crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $90.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $75.40. Exit the trade by 31 January 2025. |
A price in wave 5 of the Elliott wave analysis remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target remains at $256.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $223.00. Exit the trade by 24 January 2025. |
An improving technical analysis score remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $185.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $167.50. Exit the trade by 19 February 2025. |
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