By Koketso Mano
Employment in the formal non-agricultural sectors of the economy, as reflected in the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), contracted by around 130 000 jobs, or -1.2% q/q in 3Q24. Many of the jobs shed were in community services, primarily reflecting part-time jobs lost between 2Q24 and 3Q24. Compared to 3Q23, over 290 000 jobs (2.7%) have been lost but over 380 000 jobs have been added since 3Q19. There were 10.6 million workers in the formal economy in 3Q24.
Job losses were recorded in community services (-131 000 or -4.3% q/q), followed by business services (-15 000 or -0.6%), manufacturing (-4 000 or -0.3%), transport (-3 000 or -0.6%), mining (-2 000 or -0.4%) and electricity (-1 000 or -1.6%). Meanwhile, gains were recorded in trade (19 000 or 0.8%) and construction (4 000 or 0.7%). Full-time jobs declined by 14 000 q/q and 44 000, or 0.5% y/y. Most of the jobs lost in business services and those added in trade were full-time jobs. Part-time employment decreased by nearly 120 000 jobs, or 9.4% q/q, and 250 000 jobs have been lost compared to 3Q23 (-17.8%). There were under 1.2 million part-time workers and under 9.5 million full-time workers in 3Q24.
Total gross earnings increased by 1.3% q/q and were 2.6% higher than in 3Q23. Notably, earnings were 32.5% higher than 3Q19 levels, beating inflation of 27.4%. Basic salary/wage payments were higher by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, and 3.4% higher than 3Q23. Overall average monthly earnings (including overtime and bonuses) were up by 2.6% q/q and 6.6% higher than a year ago.
Outlook
The outlook on the South African economy has improved, with growth expected to approach 2% as early as next year. Structural reform, and related investment, should support a more conducive operating environment, productivity, profitability, and employment creation. Furthermore, structurally lower operating costs will be key to lowering broader inflation and lifting real incomes. The near-term gains from infrastructure maintenance and investment should be to sectors such as construction, bar any crime-related impediments, while a lower cost-of-living and rising domestic demand should support sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and finance. Over the longer term, gains should be more broad-based as per capita shares gradually rise, South Africa's attractiveness improves, and innovation lifts.
