Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 1.4% y/y in October, marking a deceleration from the revised 4.9% y/y increase (previously 4.7%) recorded in September. This result fell short of the Reuters consensus forecast of a 2.9% rise. Seasonally adjusted, mining output, critical for quarterly GDP calculations, contracted by 3.0% m/m, indicating a weak start to the fourth quarter.
Notably, a retrospective revision in September's data-from 3.8% m/m to 4.5% m/m-slightly boosted third-quarter mining output, potentially increasing the sector's contribution to the 3Q24 GDP figure
Outlook
Year-to-date (January to October), mining output has risen by approximately 1.0%, a modest improvement compared to flat growth in 2023. This growth has been supported by strong performances in chromium ore, platinum group metals (PGMs), coal, and manganese ore.
While the mining sector benefits from easing energy constraints and improving logistics, growth in the near term is expected to remain moderate due to a subdued external demand environment. Over the medium term, accelerating reforms in ports and rail infrastructure will be critical to enhancing productivity and profitability in the sector.
Selected sector analysis
The modest increase in mining production was broad-based, with growth recorded in seven out of 12 sectors. Zoning into the key mining divisions:
On the downside:
